It’s hard to agree with Arvind Subramanian’s suspicion of India’s GDP recovery

Dr Arvind Subramanian, a former chief economic adviser (CEA) in the ministry of finance, has warned, in a lecture he recently gave at the Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research (IGIDR), Mumbai, against over-optimism on economic recovery on the ground that India’s national income accounts rest on shaky legs and, even on their basis, the economy has barely recovered to the pre-pandemic level. To his credit, he said robust tax growth is an optimistic indicator of possible economic vigour. ​

The Department of Economic Affairs has a who’s who page, whose dropdown menu is, perhaps, an unwitting giveaway as to the government’s institutional regard for economic advice: On it, the CEA squeezes in between Carpenter and Computer and Printer. Perhaps that accounts for some of the wide divergences between the sage wisdom of the pre-Budget Economic Surveys, prepared by erudite CEAs, and the actual policies…

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