- July 29, 2022
- Posted by: Stratford Team
- Category: Economy
“This is a slowdown. We’re not in recession, certainly not during the first half of this year,” Zandi told CNN in a phone interview on Thursday. “This one I am absolutely sure on. We created way too many jobs.”
However, the risk of a recession in the near future is elevated.
“The outlook is cloudy,” Zandi said, adding that he pegs the risk of a recession over the next 12 months at roughly 50/50. “We need to catch a break here to avoid recession. We do need a bit of luck.”
New numbers released on Thursday show gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic activity, contracted for the second quarter in a row. Every period since 1948 with back-to-back quarters of negative GDP has coincided with a recession. However, that is not how economists at the National Bureau of Economic Research defines an official recession. Instead, they look for a broad-based decline that includes weakness in jobs, retail sales and manufacturing.
“It’s a great rule of…
