- October 2, 2022
- Posted by: Stratford Team
- Category: Economy
The writer is a former British diplomat who specialised in China. He is now a fellow of the Council on Geostrategy, the Royal United Services Institute and the Mercator Institute for China Studies
The question most commonly asked by businesses about China is whether Beijing will invade Taiwan. It remains extremely unlikely. But if it did, it would be a global economic and political disaster.
There are plenty of good military reasons why the People’s Liberation Army will not invade. The 100 nautical miles of rough seas, only 14 beaches on which to land men and materials and Taiwan’s mountainous topography all favour the defence. After a slow start, Taipei is moving towards a “porcupine” defence, which acknowledges Chinese superiority in conventional arms and relies on small, mobile platforms. These are difficult to knock out and would inflict considerable casualties. Then there is the fear of American intervention.
Xi Jinping appears to be a…
