Toward 2023: Preparing for tectonic shifts in the world economy

Colossal structural shifts are taking place in the global economy, as evidenced by the huge challenges during the ongoing year. In 2023, China seeks recovery, but the West — the US, the Eurozone and the UK, and Japan — will cope with recession and the specter of a debt crisis.

RECENTLY, the Marcos government has sought to “re-recalibrate” former president Duterte’s foreign policy. In practice, this has meant an effort to exploit China’s economic rise, while benefiting from the West’s geopolitics in Asia.

But unlike the rest of Southeast Asia that seeks regional integration and external neutrality, the Philippines, due to its military entanglements, risks being swept by the kind of “Taiwanization” that could reduce sovereignty into proxy dependency. Worse, the longer-term structural and secular economic risks, which the re-recalibration is downplaying, are rapidly rising.

In a recent Foreign Affairs commentary, Mohamed A….

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