A key gauge of future inflation is easing

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One of the most important signals of future inflation has begun to ease in the past month, a development that should reassure the Federal Reserve in its prediction that the recent inflation surge will prove largely temporary.

That signal is so-called inflation expectations: what businesses, consumers, workers and investors expect inflation to be over the next one to 10 years. Because such expectations can be self-fulfilling, economists consider them key to where inflation is going.

Expectations are tracked through a range of surveys and market-based measures, and most are telling the same story. After rising sharply from October through May, they have now begun to ease.

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The median expectation of inflation during the next year for consumers surveyed by the University of Michigan shot to 4.8% this month, the highest since August 2008….

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