U.S. Stocks: Relief Rally Likely

Tactical outlook for US equities is bullish

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At Successful Portfolio Strategy part of our investment process involves developing and constantly updating two separate market outlooks: Our “strategic” market outlook and our “tactical” market outlook. Our current strategic outlook is that, within the next six months, the S&P 500 will decline substantially below the June 16, 2022 low of 3666. However, it is currently our tactical outlook that US equity prices may stage a substantial short-term “relief rally” in the next few weeks. In this article, we will outline our case for a bullish tactical outlook, encompassing a multi-week timeframe.

Our current tactical outlook can be summarized as follows: The S&P 500 index experienced a sharp decline of 10.1% from the intraday high on August 16 to the intra-day low on September 6, but nonetheless managed to hold on to a crucial technical support region around the 3900 level. After successfully holding…

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